Revisiting the Seasonal $VIX Composite Chart (Last Updated 2022)

Volatility often bottoms in July. Here’s a look at the historical pattern, with an updated version coming soon.

Volatility tends to bottom in July—and with that in mind, I wanted to re-share this article and chart from 2023 that outlines the typical seasonal pattern of $VIX. It’s a useful reference as we move deeper into summer. We plan to update both the chart and the analysis shortly.

This article was originally published in The Option Strategist Newsletter on May 12, 2023.

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Here’s a chart that we haven’t revisited in a while. It shows the composite value of $VIX (actually, $VXO in the early years) from 1989 through 2022. In reality, the CBOE backdated the original $VIX data to 1986, but including 1987 in the chart just distorts things too much. As it is, the inclusion of the March 2020 $VIX explosion has changed the chart a little.

Typically $VIX starts the year at a low point and rises through most of January, to point “A” on the accompanying chart.