Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/20/2026
The $SPX chart is still negative, and now critical support is being tested. Equity-only put-call ratios and $VIX continue to rise, which is bearish for stocks.
The downtrend on the $SPX chart is obvious, even to the casual observer. Not only are there now lower highs and lower lows, but the short-term moving averages as well as the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) are all sloping downwards.
$SPX is now probing below its 200-day moving average and appears ready to test support in the 6500-6550 support for the first time since last November. The 200-day moving average is less important. Sometimes institutions buy there, but not if fundamentals look bad, and with oil on the rise, fundamentals probably look bad to them. However, the 6500-6550 support area is of much more concern. If that is violated, then there is tentative support in the 6350 area (lows of last August), and probably more likely in the 6200 area (lows of last July).
The heaviest selling began when $SPX closed below its December lows (6720). You may recall that such a close has an average target of a decline of 10% from there. If that were the case, it would indicate a target of where the Index was last June, near 6050.
Overhead, there is resistance all over the place. Even if an oversold rally springs up again (as it did this past Monday and Tuesday), it would run into resistance at the declining 20-day moving average. In fact, that rally early this week did not even reach the 20-day MA.
$SPX has touched the –4σ mBB a few times this month, but has not closed below that Band. It’s trading below there again today (Friday, March 20th). Even a close below that Band wouldn’t guarantee an eventual McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) buy signal, but it could be the first step in that process.
Equity-only put-call ratios attempted to curl over to buy signals, but they were ultimately not able to do so. Hence, they remain bearish for stocks. They won’t turn bullish until they roll over. A few days ago, the computer analysis programs had called the weighted chart as a buy signal, but not the standard chart. But now they are outright bearish once again, and still on the sell signals that were originally generated in early February but which took a while to kick in.
