Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/20/2025

Despite a lot of seemingly bad news (Iran, no Fed rate cute, poor bond auction, etc.) $SPX has held its ground. The chart remains bullish, even though internal indicators are mixed.

Stocks sold off on the Israel-Iran conflict, but only modestly as it appeared that traders were most worried about the U.S. directly entering the conflict which hasn’t happened. Moreover, there has not been any particular disruption in the flow of oil.

The chart of $SPX remains bullish. It did not even trade down to last week’s lows at 5920, which is a support area. There are several more support areas, all the way down to 5700. They are marked with blue horizontal lines on the $SPX chart in Figure 1. Meanwhile, there is resistance at 6060 (recent highs) and then at 6150 (the all-time highs).

The bottom line is that, despite a lot of worries about volatility, $SPX has been trading between about 5950 and 6050 since early June. Realized volatility, as measured by the 20-day historical volatility of $SPX (HV20), has fallen to 13%.

The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal remains in place. Even with HV20 having fallen, the +/-4σ Bands remain relatively far from current prices, at 6150 and 5760, respectively.

Even with the $SPX chart remaining positive, the internal indicators have begun to slip in some cases.