Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6/27/2025

$SPX is making new all-time highs this morning, fulfilling our predictions. Now we will need to see how the internal indicators act: supportive or not?

Stocks are making new all-time highs this morning, as this is being written. This includes $SPX and $NDX, but not $RUT (Russell 2000) and $DJX (The Dow). The $SPX chart remains very positive, and now we need to see if this breakout can be sustained, or if it will turn into another miserable failure, similar to what happened this past February. The internal indicators are improving, though, and this may help propel the market to substantially higher prices this time around.

There is now support in the area of 6150 (the old highs), but also at 6060, 5920-5940, and lower. Frankly, any decline below 5920 would be very negative and would once again introduce the possibility of this being a false upside breakout.

There is no formal resistance when the market is at new all-time highs, of course, but sometimes we can use the +4σ “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) as a guideline as to where the market has reached an overbought status. The upper, +4σ Band is currently at 6170 and rising. So we are fast approaching that level, but haven’t exceeded it yet.

One indicator that was dead on was the cumulative volume breadth (CVB) indicator. CVB first began making new all-time highs of its own back on May 16th.